Portugal has made significant progress in expanding the share of renewable energy in its power sector, but serious risks to the reliability of electricity supply remain.

According to a recent report by the Direção-Geral de Energia e Geologia (DGEG), Portugal could face periods of electricity shortages within the next few years unless additional measures are taken to modernize and manage the national power system.

The report confirms assessments by grid operator Rede Elétrica Nacional (REN) and reaches a troubling conclusion: none of the projected scenarios for the energy sector over the next decade meets the minimum requirements for supply reliability.

The authors devote particular attention to the large-scale blackout of April 28, 2025. Restoring power took around 12 hours and exposed vulnerabilities in the country’s infrastructure. According to DGEG, many of the issues identified at the time have yet to be resolved.

The issue matters not only to residents. The availability and reliability of electricity are increasingly becoming key factors in decisions on where to locate new manufacturing facilities, technology projects, and data centers. As the use of artificial intelligence expands and data-processing volumes continue to grow, energy consumption is rising worldwide.

Portugal nevertheless retains significant strengths. The country is rapidly developing its renewable energy sector, enjoys favorable conditions for solar generation, and is widely regarded as one of Europe’s more stable economies. However, the DGEG report suggests that maintaining these advantages will require more than just expanding green energy production. Additional investment is needed to improve the resilience and reliability of the power grid itself.

Portugal now faces a difficult balancing act: continuing its energy transition while strengthening grid infrastructure. How quickly these changes are implemented will affect not only consumer confidence and convenience, but also the country’s ability to attract new investment in the years ahead.

For now, we remain hopeful — but it may be wise to keep a few candles on hand, just in case.